You are quite right, Bill, FT in the US is not going well.
AND, I can tell you from solid numbers from all around the world, that it is happening everywhere.
The UK's attendance is down (substantially).
Eastern Europe's (From Austria/Germany towards the East, and that means some of the strongest contingents ever: Estonia, Lithuania, Hungary, Bulgaria, etc.) attendance is ALSO down (again, substantially)
Western Europe has never been really strong, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, they have all had a few Clubs (3 to 7 by country), and shown good performance at individual levels, but after Germany's 2013 WFTC's, the Western European teams have been somewhat lagging. And attendance has been going down in general terms.
In the Americas, Brazil is growing a little, Uruguay has always had a strong core, single club/organization, Chile dropped off the FT map after New Zealand's WFTC's Argentina has a some shooters, but not even a strong core. The rest of the South American countries are non participants in the FT scene.
Far East, is also absent. And South Africa is the only strong participant from the African continent.
Australian teams have been "fortified" by the "talent drain" from South Africa, and they do have a few Clubs, New Zealand is experiencing a slow/small re-birth of the sport.
So, there you have it. It is not only the US.
In Spanish we say "Mal de muchos, consuelo de tontos" meaning that a "General grief is a fool's respite/consolation" but we cannot extricate ourselves from a world that is being upended and changed in ways we still cannot fully grasp.
Having said all that, there are "sparks of light", for example: Pyramyd Air Cup this month, gathered 121 inscriptions, of which, about 110 shooters showed up and 103 finished the two day matches. The Spring Classic will be resurrected next year in April. And I am sure there will be other opportunities.
Having the Nationals close to the PAC is something that, perhaps needs to be re-thought.
AND the Hunter Division is still the largest component. WFTF Division has grown, but it will never be the "locomotive" of the sport.
One thing I have learned in the past year, after making a concentrated effort to bring/bring back two shooters into the sport is that the ONLY way to grow the sport is by creating a "Tutor/Apprentice" relationship with the newbies.
FT is a COMPLEX and TECHNICAL sport. It's not easy, AND this idea that Matches should be "hard" only puts a barrier to many that, not only are not competitive, but dislike the idea of showing themselves off in a scores table.
Add to that the large work load of setting up and cleaning out the courses, and it adds to a complex environment where it is difficult to grow.
The other aspect is that with the advent of larger and more powerful airguns, PLUS the improvements in pellets' designs and performance, the Long Range / Extreme / High Power version of the sport is growing, outside AAFTA.
Still another aspect is that the "Entry Ticket" for FT has been going up SUBSTANTIALLY. What started in an English Pub many years ago with standard sporter/hunting rifles in the £200 has evolved into a sport where you can be shooting $7 to $10,000 worth of equipment.
Hard to convince someone to TRY a sport where the end game is spending that much money.
AND where the rules make it impossible to adopt new technologies that would lower that cost substantially.
What is in the Future?
In my own very personal and honest opinion:
1.- We need to promote not only "AAFTA sanctioned Matches" AAFTA needs to follow the Palmyra example of smaller "pills" to digest, with simpler courses, and the possibility of shooting all day. Yes, the current rules only need ONE sanctioned Match a year for a Club to be "in good standing", but I do not hear or see AAFTA doing a promotional effort to make more "informal matches" available.
AND they ARE important. How else are most shooter going to learn? Can everyone have a course in his backyard? Hardly! Can everyone learn from the miss in one target to improve for the rest of the shoot? Hardly. Most of us need the possibility of going back to those lanes/targets we missed and miss again a few times to actually "get" the best way of tackling that specific setup. It may be the wind, the light, the angle of the floor, the tree that is obstructing half the gate, or any other number of reasons that we need to reconcile with in order to LEARN HOW to shoot under that specific set of circumstances.
THAT is how humans learn, from the easy to the hard and then to the medium difficulty in order to move into the next hard challenge.
2.- We also need to promote permanent practice courses. It is an almost general rule: The best shooters come from Clubs that KEEP a permanent practice/training course. We do need to find an economic and viable way to do that, and then suggest to the Clubs ways to achieve that.
3.- We need to get a set of SIMPLE rules for the Long Range game. THIS should be the game that attracts those that shoot PRS, PRL, ARS, etc. into the FT modality.
4.- We need to better explain how hard and challenging is FT. People think it is easy because good shooters MAKE IT LOOK EASY. Once a newbie tries it, and fails, it's "game over".
5.- We need to devise a TRULY entry class level Division, something that allows most parents to accompany and shoot with their kids in a fun and entertaining way while at the same time developing the marksmanship skills that will be useful later, not only in an FT environment, but in ANY shooting environment.
6.- We need to coordinate better with the Industry. At present, we only request donations and sponsorships, but we do need to be of VALUE to the industry. As FT shooters, we demand a lot from our equipment, and not every maker/manufacturer wants to have a "Formula 1 racecar" flagship product in its lineup, but for those that DO want, we can provide a huge pool of resources for evaluation and feedback. Sure some shooters are already doing that; an organized approach would make the AAFTA more relevant.
7.- We need to review the GP and settle the circuit. From having a lack of GP's, we now have an excess where no one can go to all of them, and not all of them are held to the same standards. When something becomes so prevalent and complicated, it loses relevance and importance.
8.- I THINK that we, Americans, have enough long weekends, that we COULD implement 3 day shoots. Not only are they great training and good opportunities to extend the camaraderie, they are also better suited to welcome the Industry's efforts. Currently, the GP's are, anyway, 3 day shoots if they hold a pistol/offhand match. It's just that we do not take advantage of the whole thing in an organic way.
9.- AAFTA needs to implement a "proper/self owned" forum. Somewhere that can be used to communicate initiatives, AND receive feedback from the shooters.
Not that the feedback is a vote or a poll, we simply need to accept that the MD's/Club Reps have enough in their lives to add more to their workload.
Soliciting opinions from all the constituents of each club is a huge initiative and, frankly, outside the scope of most MD's/Club Reps
I do NOT think that AAFTA should become a shooter based organization for the time being, we just need to ensure that the "end users" also have a voice (if not a vote), in the general aspects of rule making and general orientation.
10.- I don't think we ever hoped WFTF Division to be the MAIN branch for growth. We hoped it would give the sport more "visibility" and, perhaps more "luster" within the shooting community, but I have always thought that Hunter Division is the more natural/appropriate Division for the US's gun culture and way of life.
That we need to review/add something for "entry/sporter" level is a different thing.
AND that, if we DO get good results at World's levels, we should make a concerted and official effort to promote the KNOWLEDGE of those results among the shooting sports advocates and organizations.
To close, I emphasize that this is my personal opinion, and YMMV.
Keep well and shoot straight!
HM